Journal Paper

This study quantified performance indicators associated with match outcomes among
champion teams from the five major European football leagues during the 2023–2024 season.
Ordinal logistic regression with robust standard errors clustered by team was employed,
with analyses stratified by match location (home/away) and opponent quality
(high/medium/low). Data from 182 matches were sourced fromWyscout® and included
offensive indicators (possession, passes, shots, shots on target, expected goals) and defensive
indicators (interceptions, fouls, shots conceded, yellow and red cards). Spearman
correlations showed that goals scored (q = 0.523) and shots on target (q = 0.243) were
positively associated with match outcomes, whereas goals conceded (q = −0.441) and fouls
(q = −0.255) were negatively associated. Ordinal regression revealed context-dependent effects.
Offensively, shots on target increased the odds of a better outcome at home (OR = 3.76)
and against high-quality opponents (OR = 5.24), while expected goals (xG) was the key
predictor in away matches (OR = 2.09). Defensively, interceptions were crucial against
high-quality opponents (OR = 1.76), while fouls (OR = 0.53) and yellow cards (OR = 0.61)
were detrimental against medium-quality opponents. Against low-quality opponents, shots
on target conceded (OR = 0.22) and red cards (OR = 66.58) were critical. Volume-based
indicators did not retain significant independent effects. For elite champion teams, competitive
success is predominantly determined by efficiency-based indicators, shot accuracy,
expected goals, and defensive organisation, whose relevance varies systematically with
context. These findings provide exploratory insights and a context-sensitive benchmark
for performance analysis at the highest level of European football, warranting further
validation in future studies.